Will Infinity war cross Avatar's box office collection?
Will Infinity war cross Avatar's box office collection? Ohh Its A Tough Question To Answer but INFINITY WAR will surely cross $2 billion. INFINITY WAR would probably cross $2.5 billion (chances are less) INFINITY WAR has an outside(like way outside) chance of becoming the highest worldwide grosser ever($2.788 billion, Avatar holds this record currently).
INFINITY WAR released everywhere except China and Russia.
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US box office
In the US INFINITY WAR grossed $250 million in the opening weekend. However this is estimated, by the time actual results are announced(US time) the total would be slightly higher than $250 million, something like $252–253 million. There’s a probability that it may come lesser than $250 million as well but chances are lesser as the estimates had only increased over the weekend.
[x=multiplier. If a movie collects $300 million lifetimes over a $100 opening than it has a 3x multiplier]
Normally an MCU movie collects 2.6x–2.7x(Civil War had a much lower 2.28x) the opening weekend in a lifetime unless it is buoyed by extremely positive reviews or had a comparatively lower opening weekend. For example, GOTG1 had a 3.55x multiplier with extremely positive reviews and Ant-Man had 3.15 multiplier with positive reviews and a comparatively low opening weekend which means word of mouth kicked in.
Now it gets tricky when it is an event film and with an incredibly high opening weekend. But given the madness around IW(with positive reviews) be rest assured that it gets 2.7x multiplier. But given that this is summer you can expect a higher multiplier so somewhere around 3x. If however, it drops by less than 50% in its second weekend at the box office, you can see an uptick and might see a 3.1x or 3.2x multiplier. So a final total between $675–$800 million. If the drop is 40% the multiplier increases further but that is highly unlikely as it has exhausted a lot of its core audience.
All that being said it won’t be able to break SW: TFA records total box office collections in the US because of TFA releases during Christmas season which is filled with holidays and is followed by New Years'.
Rest Of World Box Office(Minus China)
Outside the US the movie opened to $380 million. This is a little tricky to predict as different countries like different things in each movie. But expect a 3x-3.7x multiplier in the collections(Since the reviews are good). However, the movie had opened a day or two earlier in certain parts of the world and as such had already amassed about $80 million before Friday. So it actually earned $300 million overseas. That gives it a total of anywhere around $900million-$1.11 billion.
Factor in Russia where the movie is yet to release - $60million-$80 million.
Total will come to anywhere between. $960 million - $1.2 billion.
China Box Office
Now China loves Superhero movies but what it loves more is RDJ in those superhero movies. IM3 did over $120 million 5 years ago since then the number of screens have increased by over 40–50%; Avengers: AOU did over $150 million and CA: CW did $180 million in China.
Now, this is an event film so expect an opening anywhere between $100 million to $180 million. The huge gap is because the Chinese audience is highly unpredictable. That being said superhero movies normally have lesser multipliers in China so expect a multiplier of 2.1x-2.4x. So totals may land between $210 million to $432 million. We can take a more optimal $300 million as a good number(these can always go up or down so don’t hold me to it :P)
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So here is how the total stands:
WW Box Office - $1.995 billion (minimum estimate)- $2.3 billion (maximum estimate). [Have taken China Box Office total as $300 million]
If China overshoots and crosses even $432 million, there is THAT outside chance I was talking about of this crossing Avatar Box Office Total. Highly unlikely but wilder things have happened.
Disclaimer: All these numbers are unadjusted for inflation. I am not an expert nor do I claim to be one, I am just fascinated by Box Office numbers and have had it as a hobby for the last 6–7 years. If you have queries feel free to comment.
Although the movie earned $380 million in opening weekend overseas, it actually had already earned close to $80 million before Friday. I have made the requisite changes in the calculations. The movie is still poised to cross $2 billion though, the third movie ever to do so.
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